Image of Power | JUL – AUG 2024
Political AnalisysWelcome to a new edition of “Image of Power,” Directorio Legislativo’s Latin American presidential approval monitor.
Popular support levels have remained steady over the past two months, with only Andrés Manuel López Obrador seeing a surge following the June elections. Lula Da Silva, Javier Milei, Luis Lacalle Pou, and Daniel Noboa all hover around 50% approval, while Gustavo Petro and Gabriel Boric maintain lower support at 35% and 33%, respectively.
The July elections in Venezuela have unfolded as a crisis long in the making, sending shockwaves throughout South America. As the political landscape evolves, countries are aligning into three distinct groups: those rejecting the official results while still calling for dialogue; those decrying fraud but yet to recognize Edmundo González Urrutia as the winner; and those endorsing the opposition’s victory. We delve deeper into this in our special report.
In Mexico, the image of AMLO accelerating his agenda in his final weeks underscores his powerful, personalistic leadership, one that Sheinbaum may find difficult to replicate. Whether her strong electoral backing will protect her from the political and legal fallout of the reform remains to be seen. Her main challenge, in the eyes of the public, will be tackling insecurity.
In Colombia, the National Electoral Council continues investigating alleged illegalities in the financing of Gustavo Petro’s presidential campaign, which may include contributions from corporate entities. Petro has dismissed this as a renewed coup attempt.
In Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro led yet another large-scale protest, this time targeting Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes. De Moraes, who not only ordered the suspension of X (formerly Twitter) in Brazil but also spearheaded the investigations that led to Bolsonaro’s disqualification from public office for eight years, is at the center of two interconnected cases.
In Ecuador, worsening economic indicators such as rising inflation and unemployment have weakened Daniel Noboa’s standing, causing him to lose around 30 points in approval. Nonetheless, he remains a strong contender in the February 2025 elections, where he will once again face Luisa González of the Citizen Revolution Movement, led by former president Rafael Correa.